Six holding companies will become three: Toby Southgate's predictions for 2026

At the last GOOD CEOs gathering of 2025, fifteen creative industry leaders sat around a table with a couple of pints and some undrunk warm white wine. The question on the table: what's coming in 2026?

Most people offered a thought or two. But towards the end, Toby Southgate, global CEO of We Are Social, read out three predictions. The room went quiet.

They were so considered, so specific, and so backed by the kind of insider knowledge that comes from running one of the world's most respected social agencies, that we decided to make them the subject of our first issue of the year. Toby agreed to go on record. Here's what he said.

Prediction one: the six will become three

For three decades, six agency holding companies have ruled the marketing services world. WPP, Omnicom, Publicis, IPG, Dentsu, and Havas. Toby's view is that two of them are heading for the exit, one way or another.

The move is already underway. Omnicom's acquisition of IPG in late 2024 was not a freak occurrence but the opening act of a new era. Tectonic plates are starting to shift. Some will merge. Some will disintegrate.

WPP, Toby argues, is the most urgent case. The company was relegated from the FTSE 100 in December, called in McKinsey for a strategic overhaul, and has been haemorrhaging market confidence for the better part of two years. Toby is diplomatic about the outcome. Our take at GOOD CEOs is slightly different: we believe WPP is going to bounce back in the next 24 months. They've hit the floor, they know it, and they've accepted that reality. That's actually a more promising position than denial.

Dentsu is in a messier spot. The Japanese firm has been trying to offload its struggling international arm since the summer of 2025. Talks with private equity firms, including Bain, are ongoing but strained. A sale that's perpetually on the verge of collapse is corrosive to morale and client relationships.

Publicis and Havas, by contrast, are in reasonable shape. Publicis benefits from a significant private shareholder providing insulation from market pressure. Havas has outperformed expectations with strong organic growth, particularly in the US.

What it means for independent agencies

Here's where it gets genuinely interesting for the rest of the market. When the giants wobble, the scrappier players get into rooms they'd never normally be invited to.

"Great companies stay great through hiring and retaining the best people. Right now, those people are gravitating towards independent agencies that value creativity. These companies can turn quickly." Toby Southgate

Toby's prediction is simple and bold: pitch lists will start featuring names that would have seemed unthinkable five years ago. Independent agencies will find themselves competing for clients who previously wouldn't have looked twice at them.

There's a talent story here too. Big network redundancies mean senior people with real experience are now available to smaller organisations that can actually use them. The caveat is adjustment. People who've spent their careers inside corporate infrastructure don't always land smoothly in agile, scrappier environments. But the ones who embrace the shift and see it as a chance to actually change things? They can be transformative.

Prediction two: the first billion-dollar independent

Toby believes that 2026 will see the emergence of the first independent holding company to break a billion dollars in annual revenue. The names in contention include VCCP, MSQ Partners, Common Interest, Serviceplan Group, Huge and R/GA.

Common Interest is the one that catches our eye. If we're living in an attention economy, then entertainment is the oil. Common Interest doesn't just have financial backing, it has a genuinely compelling set of leaders and businesses with swagger. The whole group stands for something, which, in the world of PE-backed roll-ups, is rare. Rare enough to be worth a billion, possibly.

Serviceplan is the dark horse. Often overlooked, but quietly impressive. They recently won a landmark European Commission contract worth up to 180 million euros and were named independent agency and network of the year at Cannes 2025. Worth watching.

Prediction three: private equity will revive a killed brand

This is Toby's most provocative call. Omnicom's merger with IPG was accompanied by the erasure of some of advertising's most storied names: DDB, JWT, FCB. And Toby believes at least one of those brands could be reanimated, not by a network, but by private equity.

"Killing off the most creatively awarded network in the world is poor brand management, and borderline insane." Toby Southgate on DDB

The economic logic is almost impossible to argue with. Sitting on a server somewhere are all the brand assets of a legendary agency, delivering zero commercial value to anyone. A PE firm with a hundred agency people could offer a few million dollars for the rights and name, and own one of the most powerful pieces of intellectual property in the history of advertising. No due diligence, no lawyers, no integration nightmare. Just a brand, a story, and a blank page.

The harder question is who it's actually worth it to. The industry would care. But would clients? That's less clear. What we do know is that whoever picks it up and tells the right story around it could create something genuinely compelling, especially for talent who grew up idolising those names.

GOOD CEOs is a newsletter, podcast and events series from UNKNOWN, the talent growth consultancy. We meet every fortnight to talk honestly about building creative businesses. If you're interested in joining the conversation, start at weareunknown.io.

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